L A R I S S A P R I V A T E T R A V E L
Issue 001 · From Larissa
This briefing covers the latest developments in travel and how they might affect your plans.
Two global stories are reshaping travel right now. The Gulf conflict has disrupted aviation fuel supplies, insurance markets and the routing assumptions behind almost every long-haul booking. And a super El Niño is developing that will change conditions across Southeast Asia, East Africa and beyond from July onwards.
Each signal comes with my view on what it means specifically for you.
Larissa Atkins · Larissa Private Travel
How to read this briefing
Red FlagSomething unresolved that may directly affect your plans. Read these regardless of where you are going.
WatchA developing situation with specific implications for your destination or booking.
OpportunitySomething genuinely worth knowing that most people have not acted on yet.
TrackingLarissa is monitoring a developing story. No client action recommended yet.
Red Flag · Aviation · Fuel
European jet fuel reserves: approximately six weeks remaining.
The International Energy Agency has warned Europe has around six weeks of jet fuel left. Jet fuel has nearly doubled in price since the Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28. Lufthansa has cancelled 20,000 short-haul flights to preserve existing reserves.
As of May 1, the United States has stated it may need to renew the war with Iran. A dual blockade is in place — the US Navy blockading Iranian ports, Iran blockading the Gulf. The ceasefire has been described by the US Vice President as a fragile truce. Pentagon officials have confirmed that mine clearance of the Strait of Hormuz could take six months from when the war ends. Until mines are cleared, insurers will not underwrite the route as safe. Without insurance, commercial shipping cannot resume at scale.
Developing — May 2026
The UK government has announced that airlines will be permitted to cancel or consolidate flights up to two weeks in advance without losing their airport slots, if they face fuel shortages this summer. The measure removes the incentive for airlines to fly half-empty planes purely to protect valuable take-off and landing slots. A short consultation is underway.
The Transport Secretary has stated there is currently no disruption to jet fuel supply but described the situation as evolving. The UK is actively importing additional fuel from the United States and west Africa and asking domestic refineries to maximise production.
The European Commission has indicated airlines may not be required to pay financial compensation to passengers if disruption can be directly attributed to the jet fuel shortage. This has not yet been confirmed in UK law. Airlines retain their existing obligation to rebook or refund passengers regardless of cause.
My View: The headlines are dramatic and they are real. But airlines have a strong incentive to keep flying rather than issue refunds, so what we will most likely see is consolidation rather than cancellation. Fewer flights operating at fuller capacity. If there are currently fifteen daily services to a destination from multiple London airports, expect that to become three or four running full. Response will vary considerably by country and by route.
What that means practically is that your flight time may change. If you have a connecting itinerary, particularly one linking to a long-haul flight operating only a few times a week, airlines are more likely to protect that connection. Families should book seats together now. Consolidated flights fill fast.
If your flight is cancelled, the airline is legally obliged under UK261 to offer you a refund or a rebooking regardless of the reason for cancellation. Force majeure removes their obligation to pay additional cash compensation. It does not remove their obligation to refund your ticket or rebook you.
What force majeure does not protect is your accommodation. Your hotel or villa operates under its own cancellation terms. If you did not arrive because your flight was cancelled, your accommodation has no legal obligation to refund you. That gap between your airline refund and your stranded accommodation costs is exactly where package protection matters. The next section explains why.
The government has confirmed that airlines will be permitted to consolidate exactly as described above. Martin Lewis covered this recently on ITV. He was right.
Trajectory: Unresolved · Developing · Monitor daily
Red Flag · Insurance · Package Protection
Standard travel insurance does not cover this conflict. Booking flights and hotels separately removes legal protections most people assume they have.
Standard policies from every major insurer including Allianz and Zurich exclude war, military action and government airspace closures. Cancel for any reason cover is the only policy that applies. It must be purchased before the risk becomes a known event. For the Iran conflict, that date was February 28, 2026.
UK package holiday bookers have specific legal protections under the Package Travel and Linked Travel Arrangements Regulations. If your flight is cancelled and you cannot travel, a package operator must either provide the holiday as booked, offer a suitable alternative, or refund all payments made for the package. Jet2, EasyJet and TUI have all confirmed they will not add fuel surcharges to any pre-booked packages or new bookings for summer 2026. Those protections do not exist for independently booked flights and hotels.
My View: Two things matter right now. Book everything as a package. A flight and hotel booked separately is not protected in the same way when something goes wrong. And take out your travel insurance as soon as after booking, not closer to departure. Martin Lewis made exactly this point recently on ITV. He was right. If you already have a significant trip planned and you are not certain what you are covered for, this is worth a conversation.
Trajectory: Critical
Watch · Climate · Global
A super El Niño is developing. From July 2026 it reshapes conditions across multiple destinations simultaneously.
The World Meteorological Organisation confirmed on April 24 that climate models are now strongly aligned on El Niño onset from May to July 2026 with further intensification expected through the rest of the year. NOAA puts the probability at 62 percent. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is showing anomalies consistent with super El Niño strength by August to October. El Niño operates as a global seesaw. When the Pacific warms, specific regions dry out and heat up while others flood.
Southeast Asia — August to October. Indonesia's 2026 fire season is already running at twenty times the burned area of the same period in 2025. During El Niño years peatland fires produce smoke that crosses borders and affects air quality across Bali, Singapore and Malaysia for weeks at a time. Temperatures across the region are forecast at two to three degrees above normal from July onwards.
Kenya — October to December. The Kenya Meteorological Department has confirmed a 58 to 61 percent probability of El Niño conditions from June to December 2026. Historical pattern across 1997, 2006, 2015 and 2023 is consistent: El Niño brings above-normal short rains to eastern and northern Kenya in October to December, causing flash flooding, road damage and disrupted access to remote areas. The migration window of July to October sits ahead of the main risk period.
Sri Lanka and the Philippines face intensified short rains in the same October to December window.
My View: Southeast Asia in the second half of the year needs a specific conversation about timing and destination before anything is finalised. Bali in September may not be Bali as most people imagine it. The migration season in Kenya is likely unaffected but the mid October to early November window is something I am watching closely, and so are the camps.
Trajectory: Developing · Monitor monthly · Upgrade to red flag if El Niño reaches super status
Watch · Europe · Airports
The EU's new border biometric system went live April 10. Two to four hour queues across Europe. Airlines are demanding emergency suspension until September.
Every non-EU traveller including British nationals must now submit fingerprints and facial scans at every Schengen border for the first time. On the first day at Milan's Linate airport 122 passengers were left behind on a single EasyJet flight to Manchester after hours-long queues. One family spent over £1,600 rerouting home via Luxembourg.
Ryanair wrote to all 29 Schengen governments on May 1 demanding full suspension of the system until September, citing staff shortages and system crashes at Malaga, Alicante, Tenerife, Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura with queues already exceeding two hours. Aviation bodies ACI Europe and Airlines for Europe have described the rollout as a systemic failure. Greece has exempted UK nationals from biometric registration entirely and reverted to traditional passport stamps. France's Channel crossing implementation has been postponed indefinitely after software failed final tests. Italy is currently reporting the longest delays in the EU. No passengers can bypass the system. It is mandatory EU law. Priority lane access is currently the most effective mitigation available.
My View: Every client heading to Italy, Spain or France this summer needs to know this is happening before they fly. Add 90 minutes minimum to airport arrival times. I am strongly advising clients to upgrade to VIP airport assistance.
Trajectory: Deteriorating · Peak season will be significantly worse
Watch · Destination · Mediterranean
Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal are absorbing the entire redirection of Middle East travel. Bookings are surging and the best properties are filling.
Summer flight bookings to Spain are up 32% year on year. Hotel searches up 28%. Portugal flight bookings up 21%. TUI has revised its 2026 profit forecast downward as Turkey, Egypt and Cyprus bookings collapse while simultaneously shifting capacity aggressively to Spain, Italy and Greece.
Prices on popular routes to Greece, Spain and Italy for July and August are climbing week on week. The best properties at the right dates are filling now.
My View: If you are looking to book a holiday in Italy, Spain or Greece, availability is becoming more scarce.
Trajectory: Accelerating · Book now
Watch · Destination · Maldives
Overall arrivals to the Maldives are down 4% year to date. The destination is completely safe. The problem is the route.
In the weeks immediately following the Gulf airspace closures daily arrivals fell by over 40%. The European market is most exposed as a large share of travellers rely on Gulf transit hubs now disrupted. At the same time, private jet arrivals to the Maldives rose 166% between February and March as high net worth travellers bypassed disrupted commercial routes entirely.
British Airways and Virgin Atlantic operate direct non-stop flights from London Heathrow to Malé. No Gulf transit. No exposure to disruption. Flight time approximately 10 to 11 hours. SriLankan Airlines via Colombo provides a reliable alternative with the Colombo to Malé leg taking 90 minutes. Singapore Airlines via Singapore and Thai Airways via Bangkok are also operating without disruption. The ultra-exclusive tier of properties is reporting demand at an all-time high for the winter season. Mid-market occupancy has been more affected.
My View: The Maldives remains one of the world's great destinations. The routing disruption has affected the market unevenly. The top properties are in strong demand. What has changed is the routing and for clients who have not yet made arrangements to get there, the options are better than most people realise.
Trajectory: Watch · Routing solvable · Top properties booking fast
Watch · Destination · Japan
Japan has introduced new tourist taxes across its most visited cities. The Golden Route is becoming seriously overcrowded.
From July 2026 Japan raises its international departure tax from JPY 1,000 to JPY 3,000 per traveller. Kyoto has implemented Japan's highest ever accommodation tax, with luxury properties charged up to JPY 10,000 per person per night from April 2026. Multiple other prefectures are implementing similar levies.
Overtourism in 2026 is most severe at the most visited temples, bamboo groves and mountain viewpoints. Japan's government tourism plan explicitly aims to disperse visitors away from the Tokyo-Kyoto-Osaka corridor but demand has not yet followed.
My View: Japan remains extraordinary. The Japan most visitors experience on a standard itinerary in 2026 is not what the country actually is. Japan rewards early planning. A strong domestic market means hotels fill fast, English-speaking guides are booked well in advance and response times from properties are slow.
Trajectory: Watch · Plan well in advance
Opportunity · Airlift · Kenya
British Airways doubles its London Heathrow to Nairobi service to two flights daily from June 1, operating through to October 24.
The second daily service operates as an evening departure from Heathrow arriving Nairobi the following morning. The timing covers the full peak migration season in the Masai Mara.
Previously, with one daily flight, clients often needed to overnight in Nairobi before connecting to safari. The second service creates flexibility that did not previously exist on this route.
My View: This is a meaningful change for Kenya this season. With two daily flights you no longer need to overnight in Nairobi on the way in or the way out. That changes the itinerary significantly.
Trajectory: Positive · Book now for peak season dates
Opportunity · Experience · East Africa
Peak migration crossing season in the Masai Mara runs July to October. The best camps in private conservancies are fully booked.
Demand for private curated safari experiences is growing strongly across UK and US markets in 2026. American travellers account for nearly half of all African safari bookings this year. The best camps outside the public reserve operate on an exclusive vehicle basis with no other guests at crossings.
The migration on the public Mara in peak season — surrounded by dozens of other vehicles, in the heat, the dust and the flies — is a very different experience to what most people imagine before they go. From a private conservancy it is a completely different proposition.
My View: The migration is one of the genuinely unmissable wildlife events in the world. How you experience it makes all the difference. I know which camps still have availability and which are worth the conversation.
Trajectory: Positive · Availability tightening
Opportunity · Experience · Orient Express
Two new Orient Express experiences launch this month. One by rail. One by sea.
The Venice Simplon-Orient-Express, operated by Belmond using restored original 1920s carriages, launches its first ever direct route from Paris to the Amalfi Coast on May 4. The journey includes a stay at the Caruso hotel in Positano and a boat tour along the coast. Separately, on April 29 in Saint-Nazaire, Orient Express Corinthian was officially launched and named. The world's largest sailing yacht, operated by Accor under the Orient Express brand, begins its inaugural Mediterranean season this month. Fifty-four suites.
The two Orient Express brands are entirely separate companies with no connection beyond sharing a historic name. The Venice Simplon-Orient-Express is the classic restored train. The Corinthian is a sailing yacht with the Orient Express aesthetic but an entirely different proposition.
My View: These are two very different experiences that happen to share a famous name. If luxury rail or sailing is something you are considering, this is worth knowing about.
Trajectory: Positive · Inaugural season · Limited availability
Sicily, Italy
Verdura Resort
Reopened this week following a complete redesign. Three new restaurants including Nagori, a Japanese-Sicilian concept inside the 16th century Saracen Tower. New cocktail bar Scirocco, new piazza, longevity wellness programmes inspired by Sicily's emerging Blue Zone culture. Suites redesigned by Paolo Moschino and Philip Vergeylen. Golf course closed for renovation until November 2026.
Venice, Italy
Orient Express Palazzo Donà Giovannelli
Opened April 2026. Forty-seven rooms, suites and apartments inside a palazzo in Cannaregio, designed by the architect behind the Doge's Palace. Private boat access and Wagon Bar.
Florence, Italy
Villa San Michele, A Belmond Hotel
Reopened April 28 after eighteen months of renovation. Fifteenth-century Franciscan monastery overlooking Florence. First ever spa added, Villa San Michele Spa by Guerlain. Twenty-seven suites and twelve rooms.
Mykonos, Greece
Four Seasons Mykonos
Opening summer 2026. First Greek island Four Seasons. Ninety-four rooms, suites and villas in Cycladic style cascading from coastal cliffs to the beach.
Montenegro
Aman Sveti Stefan
Reopening for summer 2026. Villa Milocer opens May 22. The island itself opens July 1. A 15th century fortified village on a private island connected to the mainland by a causeway.
Athens, Greece
Conrad Athens
Formerly the Hilton Athens. Now open following a full transformation. 278 rooms and suites with views across the Acropolis and the Aegean Sea.
Tracking · Climate · Kenya November
Clients with late October and November Kenya bookings should be aware of the El Niño flood risk to road and camp access.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has confirmed a 58 to 61 percent probability of El Niño conditions from June to December 2026. Historical pattern across 1997, 2006, 2015 and 2023 is consistent: El Niño brings heavy short rains to eastern and northern Kenya in October to December, causing flooding, road damage and disrupted access to remote areas. The core migration crossing season runs July to October and sits ahead of the main risk window.
My View: The documented links between El Niño and Kenya flooding suggest the migration season itself will run ahead of the main risk window. Which I agree with. It should be fine. The risk window of mid October to early November falls within the short rains and is not a period I would normally recommend for travel to Kenya anyway.
Tracking · No client action recommended yet · Monitor monthly
Tracking · Climate · Southeast Asia
Bali, Thailand and Vietnam in the second half of 2026 need careful timing. El Niño haze and heat from July onwards.
Indonesia's fire season is already running at twenty times 2025 levels. When peatland fires develop at scale, smoke crosses borders and affects Bali, Singapore and Malaysia for weeks. NOAA forecasts temperatures two to three degrees above normal across Southeast Asia from July. The period of greatest risk for travellers is August to October.
Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines face reduced rainfall and higher temperatures during El Niño years. In parts of Vietnam meteorologists are already warning that 2026 heatwaves could arrive earlier and run hotter than average. The safer windows for Southeast Asia travel are January to April before El Niño fully develops, or after January 2027.
My View: Southeast Asia in the second half of the year needs a specific conversation about timing and destination before anything is finalised. Bali in September may not be Bali as most people imagine it.
Tracking · Upgrade likely if El Niño reaches super status · Monitor monthly
Mediterranean
ACT NOW
Booking out fast. Best properties filling. EES queues at airports. Upgrade to VIP airport assistance.
Maldives
WATCH
Top properties in strong demand. Routing via London direct or Colombo clean and reliable. Avoid Gulf hubs.
East Africa · Safari
WATCH
Migration season July to October likely runs ahead of El Niño risk window.
Japan
WATCH
New tourist taxes from July. Golden Route severely overcrowded. Plan well in advance.
Dubai & UAE
WAIT
Temperatures hitting 45°C now. Airport at reduced capacity. Revisit from October.
Southeast Asia
TRACKING
El Niño haze and heat from July. August to October highest risk in Bali and Indonesia.
Kenya · Late Oct / Nov
TRACKING
Short rain season. Not a period normally recommended for travel to Kenya.
Rwanda
WATCH
Gulf independent routing. Gorilla trekking permits available.
Sri Lanka
WATCH
Excellent Colombo hub for Maldives routing. El Niño short rains risk October to December.
Americas
CLEAR
No Gulf dependency. Transatlantic routing entirely unaffected.
Australia & Pacific
WATCH
El Niño drought risk late 2026. No Gulf dependency otherwise.
Europe · Airports
WATCH
EES biometric queues two to four hours. Italy and Spain worst affected. Upgrade to VIP assistance.
Travel has rarely felt more complicated. I hope this helps.
Stay informed. Travel well.
Larissa Atkins · Larissa Private Travel
Virtuoso · Forbes Travel Guide · ATOL 7514 · IATA 91-200056
+44 7785 280090 · larissaprivatetravel.com
Intelligence correct at time of issue. Situation evolving.